ANATOMY OF MULTICOLORED REVOLUTIONS

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“The first signs of Ukrainian or Georgian revolutions were in Yerevan in 1996”, said Alexander Iskandaryan, head of the Caucasian Mass Media Institute during the round table organized today in the Institute referring to velvet revolutions.

According to him, there was everything necessary for a revolution except two things: West and finances. And according to Mr., Iskandaryan, the interference of “another world” on the levels of finance, experience and morals is very important for a revolution. But for a revolution to start an inner impetus is necessary, e.g. elections. Then comes the division of the economical elite, “as it happened in Tbilisi, Sukhumi and Kiev, when half of the elite started to support the opposition”.

Then come the technologies. “All these revolutions took place by the on-line principle”, said Alexander Iskandaryan pointing to the international TV programs. Then he found the social base important, which must stand in the streets “for an enough period of time in an enough quantity”.

And the authorities, according to Alexander Iskandaryan, must be unable to hinder the social movement. But which country is the next? “A number of countries are named: Moldova, Armenia and others”, enumerated the speech-maker. No elections are expected in Armenia, and the “constitutional changes are not enough to start a meeting activity and to call, say, 700 thousand people to street and keep them in front of the President’s house for a month”, supposed the speaker.

Then Iskandaryan answered the question if a revolution is expected in Armenia, “The Kocharyan regime is not like that of Shevardnadze or Kuchma, neither is the opposition like Sahakashvili and Yushchenko. The opposition is incapable of such a movement, not even in case of support from abroad”.