Issues of Armenia and Azerbaijan at Turkey’s elections
Do Azerbaijan and its lobby have influence on Turkish politics in the direction of Armenia? According to Nigar Goksel, Senior Analyst for South Caucasus/Turkey Project for the International Crisis Group, when it comes to the Azerbaijani influence over Turkish policy is not a lobby per se but rather a combination of two factors must be taken into account. “One is the current political leadership’s assessment of the national interests of the country. The other, is the sentiments and interests of a range of communities of the society. Regarding the first factor: Turkey has an edge in its regional geopolitical competition with Russia primarily because of Baku’s prioritization of Turkey in a number of areas, primarily related to energy and soft power,” notes the analyst in reply to the question by “A1+”. She says, “To my knowledge, the issue of Azerbaijan or Armenia has not been raised at all in the election campaigns… The agenda is saturated with many much more pressing problems.” According to the expert, when it comes to Turkey-Azerbaijan relations, the economic ties must not be neglected, “There are also simple economic interests: Turkey is the largest non-energy sector investor in Azerbaijan, SOCAR is the leading foreign direct investor in Turkey, and Azerbaijan sells natural gas to Turkey at the lowest prices of any other supplier. Again, in light of these dimensions, I feel like the word “lobby” is reductionist,” says Nigar Goksel. The expert also adds, “There is a segment of society, including strategic thinkers and opinion leaders, who think Turkey’s policy should be less hinged on Baku, and that full alignment with Baku has left Turkey devoid of the capacity to be a player… However in the short term it is not likely that this opinion will transform the parameters of Turkish policymaking.” This project of the "Region" Research Center is supported by the OSCE office in Yerevan.
